The One Time Shot – NHL DFS GPP Takedown – March 12, 2018

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March 12, 2018

The One Time Shot (NHL HuLo GPP Plays) for March 1, 2018

After a self-imposed NHL DFS hiatus (NFL DFS consumed my life this fall), The One Time Shot is back at my new home, Beeline Sports. Longtime readers of mine will notice that I’ve streamlined the article a little bit, but outside of that very little has changed.

For those that are new to my article I’m Doug Shain, the 2017 FSWA NHL Fantasy Writer of the year. I’ve been writing for the last four seasons for a number of sites for NHL, MLB, and NFL DFS (and now EPL right here at Beeline Sports). Although I’ve been writing about DFS for four years, I’ve been a fantasy player for the last 27 years. I hosted what I have convinced myself is the first ever NFL Fantasy radio show way back in 1997. Fantasy sports is a huge part of my life. I love talking about it, writing about it, and playing it.

I approach DFS with a GPP mentality; I want to win big or go home. I’m a lot like you, a small buy in player looking to wind down a bit after work and maybe put some extra cash in my pocket for a nice dinner out or a vacation.

My goal for this article is to provide you with some perspective. I don’t do optimal lineups and I’m not a guy that dives deep into advanced statistics. I want you to look at my thought process and then make some decisions to help you build your GPP lineups. I always give you a sample lineup or two, but those are there merely as an example of how I build lineups from my thought process. They are definitely NOT templates or optimal lineups. We have great content here at Beeline that can give you all of that, and I strongly suggest you use that in conjunction with this article.

I live by the theory of HuLo (High upside, Low ownership). HuLo is my take on contrarianism and it guides a lot of my thinking. I always want to find those few HuLo plays that will give you an edge in your GPP contest. As we go through this journey (I egotistically view my articles as an episodic journey) I hope you’ll get to learn a lot more about how I play and how I think. When all is said and done, my biggest hope is that your gameplay benefits from taking a few minutes to see how I figure out my DFS lineups. With that, let’s get to the good stuff. Best of luck with your One Time Shot!

**One note before you read on: I’ve created a stat called SABS. It stands for Shots and Blocked Shots and I use it a lot when evaluating defenders.**

Doug’s GPP Stacks of the Slate

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers

Focus: Jeff Skinner (CAR – W), Justin Williams (CAR – W), Jaccob Slavin (CAR – D)

Value: Brett Pesce (CAR – D)

It doesn’t take a genius to know that the Rangers are playing terribly this year. They are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 3.5 GAA this season. They also give up nearly 35 SOG per game, a bad combination for them as they face a Hurricanes team that averages over 34 SOG per game. There are names I generally focus on with Carolina (Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal are the main ones) but they aren’t really SOG guys and, as you know, I’m an SOG truther. I love guys who shoot the puck, and in this matchup that’s going to be paramount for me. Jeff Skinner and Justin Williams combine for just under 6 SOG per game between them, and I think they can surpass that number against the Rangers (in their last game they had 13 combined SOG). I’d like to save a little bit of money on defense so if I’m going to use one from Carolina I’ll pull back from Justin Faulk and instead look to Jaccob Slavin (35 SABS over his last ten games) or Brett Pesce (31 SABS over his last ten games, including 8 SOG over his last two games) for additional value. Slavin and Pesce don’t see power play time but they have been on the ice together a lot so that’s a value stack I’d consider even if I didn’t want to use Carolina forwards.

Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers

Focus: David Perron (VGK – W), Erik Haula (VGK – C), Colin Miller (VGK – D), Jakub Voracek (PHI- W), Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI – D)

Value: Nolan Patrick (PHI – C)

For the first time this year I get to write about my hometown Golden Knights. There’s no way, no how, that I’m going to not put them in my article. Besides being an unapologetic homer, the Knights are simply a great play every time they take the ice. They are the #2 scoring team in hockey and are an incredible road team. The Flyers are really bad against the power play so it wouldn’t shock me if Vegas was able to put one in the net when they have the man advantage. I’m going to try to save some money here and instead of loading up on Wild Bill and friends, I’ll instead look to the duo of Erik Haula and David Perron (a combined 5 points and 25 SOG over their last four games). They don’t have as high of an upside as a guy like William Karlsson but they are aggressive and I’ll gladly take the discounted price in return for the opportunities they give each other on offense. Jonathan Marchessault is a guy I’d play only as a one off because he’s pretty pricey, but his aggressiveness gives him a huge upside (3+ SOG in eight of his last ten games). The cost cutting stops on defense where Colin Miller would be my choice. Prior to being held shotless over his last two games, he’d taken 26 SOG over his previous eight games. That’s the kind of aggressiveness I look for in a blue liner.

On the other side of this game, I think the Flyers have just as good of a shot as Vegas to put up 3+ goals. A lot of Vegas games have been shootouts this year (37% of the games they’ve played since February 1 have seen both teams hit that 3 goal mark). Let’s not forget that Vegas is playing their fifth straight road game, and this is probably the toughest of all the matchups. Right now the hottest players on Philly are Jakub Voracek (3 points and 13 SOG over his last three games) and Claude Giroux (12 points and 29 SOG over his last ten games). Obviously Giroux is hotter right now but I like the idea of stacking Voracek with Nolan Patrick (points in three straight games) rather than using Giroux with anyone else. Like with Marchessault on VGK, I’d probably use Giroux as the one-off play but not as part of a stack. One of the two higher end defenders that I’m looking at today (aside from Brent Burns – more below) is Shayne Gostisbehere. He has 45 SABS over his last ten games and will be out there for a large portion of any power play Philly has.

Florida Panthers vs Ottawa Senators

Focus: Aleksander Barkov (FLA – C), Evgenii Dadonov (FLA – W), Nick Bjugstad (FLA – W), Keith Yandle (FLA – D)

Few teams in the NHL give up more goals per game than the Ottawa Senators (3.37 GAA) and few lines are hotter than the top line for the Panthers. This one seems a little too obvious, and by the time the puck drops I may move this to a fade if I feel like Florida will be too chalky. Right now though, I’m not sure what team has a higher upside than the Panthers. The thing that keeps me around on them is that this particular line underwhelmed on Saturday against the Rangers and people may move off them if they are feeling a bit burned. They are a monster favorite to win this game and they are going to take a ton of shots. With Ottawa being so bad in net, it’s not out of the question to think that we could see a 5 goal game here. Bjugstad isn’t too pricey and could be used as a one-off kind of a play, but I think if you’re going to roll out Florida then you should go all the way with them. All the way should include Keith Yandle. He’s on a five game point scoring streak that has seen him rack up 8 assists, making him a good play despite his lack of SABS productivity.

Other Thoughts

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings have scored 3+ goals in 78% of their games since February 1. That’s quite a bit of production for a team not known for their offensive upside. Vancouver is on the second night of a back to back, which is doubly damning since they are a terrible team anyway. LA usually finds a way to disappoint me but I can’t deny that this is a great matchup. If you want to go high end I suggest Anze Kopitar (4 points with 13 SABS over his last three games), although I could see some value in Alex Iafallo, who has been getting some decent ice time alongside Kopitar over the last few games and could see some spill off points in a matchup that won’t require the stars to be on the ice for lengthy shifts.

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks are monster favorites against a bad Red Wings team but I think they may go a bit overlooked tonight for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that this is a late night game and people just tend to avoid games they can’t watch (it starts at 10:30pm EST), while the second reason is that San Jose has lost its last two of its last three games (four total goals in those three games) and has looked bad in doing so. The thing is, a game against Detroit is a lot easier than games against CBJ, STL, and WSH. This matchup could right a lot of wrongs. While Brent Burns may seem like an obvious play on defense, he’s only scored 3 points over his last ten games and that’s not a lot of production given his price. I like the idea of using him; the matchup is outstanding and over those ten games he still has accumulated over 60 SABS. The opportunities are there and the production is going to follow. A value name to keep an eye on is Kevin LeBanc, who is seeing a lot of power play time.

Anaheim Ducks: Rickard Rakell and Ryan Getzlaf (28 combined points over their last ten games) have been on fire but this game has a 5.0 over/under and I try not to target games with that number. Even with the Ducks as heavy favorites, I’d rather look elsewhere for stacks that I can get at a lower ownership and a higher projected total.

Winnipeg Jets: What I said about the Ducks stack, I feel the same way about Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, and Mark Scheifele (43 combined points over their last ten games). They should be too chalky given the low Vegas total and tough matchup in Washington. Yes, they have the highest upside of any stack on the slate but it comes with more risk than I’d like without getting a bigger price or ownership discount. I’m well aware that this fade could bite me in the rear.

Doug’s Goalies to Target

My philosophy on selecting a goalie has changed a lot over the last year or so. I used to try to find a total HuLo play and run with that. I found that all too often I’d get burned by that guy because he was just too risky. Sometimes it’s just a good idea to look at the Vegas lines, look at who is playing well, and just pay up for a favorite. The worst thing in DFS is when I hit on all my other picks but I got cute at goalie and didn’t maximize profit. I try not to do that anymore.

Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles Kings) vs Vancouver Canucks

I want to be very clear about this before I go and tell you to play him; I hate Jonathan Quick. Every time he has a good matchup and I tell my readers to play him, he ends up playing like garbage. This has been happening for four years. Despite this, I believe in my process (I’ve trusted the process long before the 76ers did) and the process tells me that this is the safest goalie play of the night. Vancouver is the only team on this slate that’s playing on the second night of a back. They are one of the worst teams in hockey and they just lost their best player (Brock Boeser) for the year. Who in the world is going to score for the Canucks now? Quick is the biggest favorite on the board, yet on DK he’s actually a little bit of a value at $8.2k. He’s been good in seven of his last ten games so, while I absolutely hate him, I think he’s probably the goalie you’ll want to target for a little bit of certainty.

Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) at Washington Capitals

If you like taking a bit of a risk, I think Hellebuyck is the kind of goalie that can win you a GPP tonight. He’s been one of the better goalies in the league this year but is an underdog on the road at Washington. The line is close in this game you get enough of a discount on Hellebuyck that I think it makes using him a worthwhile play. Winnipeg is a very live dog in this game with their high octane offense so you’re definitely not looking at a huge longshot for a win bonus, and WPG gives up a ton of shots so Hellebuyck can rack up points even if he gives up a few goals. He has only one shutout over his last ten starts but he has returned respectable value (if not good value) in seven of those games. A game of 30 saves with 3 goals allowed and a win would keep you competitive, while anything more moves you up in a GPP as I don’t see Hellebuyck being more than 10% owned in any format you could use him.

John Gibson (Anaheim Ducks) vs St Louis Blues

I think there are four safe goalies tonight and Gibson is one of them (Quick, Jones, and Bobrovsky being the other three). For the most part, I think all four of them are interchangeable. Jonathan Quick probably has the best matchup, while Jones and Bobrovsky play with better offenses (well, lately ANH has been hot but I’m talking overall). Gibson, though, could be the one that ends up with the lowest ownership of all four guys. He’s a big Vegas favorite -170, and while that makes him the smallest favorite of the big four, this is the only game on the slate with a 5.0 over/under. I don’t get too deep into these kinds of numbers, but that would lead me to believe that Gibson is probably projected to give up the least (or second least) amount of goals tonight. I still think that Jonathan Quick has the higher upside but Gibson’s lower ownership could make up for that. My hate for Quick probably put Gibson in my personal lineup but you’re probably good to go either way.

Other Thoughts

Martin Jones (SJS) and Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ) will probably be the chalk on this slate. Both are massive favorites, yet they are very pricey. They are great cash game plays and I have no issue using them in a GPP; I just like to win the ownership game and think I can get similar safety from Quick and/or Gibson or a better ownership for cheaper with Hellebuyck.

Sample Lineups

Analysis: So you want to stack Florida, huh? This is what your lineup is going to have to look like in order to do that. Am I totally comfortable with three value plays in one lineup? No I am not, but I wanted to give you an example of what you could do if you wanted to attack a bad Senators defense with the highest upside stack of the night. Remember that these are sample lineups, not optimal lineups.

CENTRE
Aleksander Barkov
(Florida Panthers)
$7600

CENTRE
Nolan Patrick
(Philadelphia Flyers)
$4300

WING
Evgenii Dadonov
(Florida Panthers)
$6900

WING
Nick Bjugstad
(Florida Panthers)
$5700

WING
Alex Iafallo
(Los Angeles Kings)
$3700

DEFENCE
Keith Yandle
(Florida Panthers)
$6000

DEFENCE
Jaccob Slavin
(Carolina Hurricanes)
$3900

GOALIE
John Gibson
(Anaheim Ducks)
$8100

UTIL (WING)
Kevin LeBanc
(San Jose Sharks)
$3700

Analysis: I don’t normally love game stacks but if there was one to do it with tonight, it’s this game. The frequency that Knights games become shootouts is too big of a number for me to ignore when I’m trying to pop off a GPP. If this game can get to 8+ combined goals, then I’m putting myself in a good position (assuming I picked the right players). I didn’t write about Teravainen earlier but he’s in a similar position as Skinner and Williams with nearly 3 SOG per game over his last ten. He’s not ideal but his price and matchup fit what I’m trying to do. If Hellebuyck can pull out a win, then this lineup had GPP-winning potential for sure.

CENTRE
Erik Haula
(Vegas Golden Kinghts)
$6000

CENTRE
Nolan Patrick
(Philadelphia Flyers)
$4900

WING
Jakub Voracek
(Philadelphia Flyers)
$7300

WING
David Perron
(Vegas Golden Knights)
$6300

WING
Teuvo Teravainen
(Carolina Hurricanes)
$6000

WING
Nick Bjugstad
(Florida Panthers)
$5300

DEFENCE
Shayne Gostisbehere
(Philadelphia Flyers)
$6200

DEFENCE
Colin Miller
(Vegas Golden Knights)
$4500

GOALIE
Connor Hellebuyck
(Winnipeg Jets)
$8400

Thank you for taking the time to stop by and check things out. Make sure to keep an eye here as I will be writing a few times a week for NHL. You can also check out my EPL article, Sharp Tongues, every Friday night with a look at that weekend’s EPL main slate. You can follow me on Twitter @bankster17; I answer everyone who sends along questions or comments.

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