The One Time Shot – NHL DFS GPP Takedown – March 20, 2018

Beeline NBA DFS Cheat Sheets – March 20
March 20, 2018
NHL FanDuel Elite GPP LU (Main) FanDuel March 20th
March 20, 2018

The One Time Shot (NHL HuLo GPP Plays)

The One Time Shot is back at my new home, Beeline Sports. Longtime readers of mine will notice that I’ve streamlined the article a little bit, but outside of that very little has changed.

For those that are new to my article I’m Doug Shain, the 2017 FSWA NHL Fantasy Writer of the year. I’ve been writing for the last four seasons for a number of sites for NHL, MLB, and NFL DFS (and now EPL right here at Beeline Sports). Although I’ve been writing about DFS for four years, I’ve been a fantasy player for the last 27 years. I hosted what I have convinced myself is the first ever NFL Fantasy radio show way back in 1997. Fantasy sports is a huge part of my life. I love talking about it, writing about it, and playing it.

I approach DFS with a GPP mentality; I want to win big or go home. I’m a lot like you, a small buy in player looking to wind down a bit after work and maybe put some extra cash in my pocket for a nice dinner out or a vacation.

My goal for this article is to provide you with some perspective. I don’t do optimal lineups and I’m not a guy that dives deep into advanced statistics. I want you to look at my thought process and then make some decisions to help you build your GPP lineups. I always give you a sample lineup or two, but those are there merely as an example of how I build lineups from my thought process. They are definitely NOT templates or optimal lineups. We have great content here at Beeline that can give you all of that, and I strongly suggest you use that in conjunction with this article.

I live by the theory of HuLo (High upside, Low ownership). HuLo is my take on contrarianism and it guides a lot of my thinking. I always want to find those few HuLo plays that will give you an edge in your GPP contest. As we go through this journey (I egotistically view my articles as an episodic journey) I hope you’ll get to learn a lot more about how I play and how I think. When all is said and done, my biggest hope is that your gameplay benefits from taking a few minutes to see how I figure out my DFS lineups. With that, let’s get to the good stuff. Best of luck with your One Time Shot!

**One note before you read on: I’ve created a stat called SABS. It stands for Shots and Blocked Shots and I use it a lot when evaluating defenders.**

Doug’s GPP Stacks of the Slate

Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks

Focus: William Karlsson (VGK – C), Jonathan Marchessault (VGK – W), James Neal (VGK – W), Colin Miller (VGK – D)

Value: Shea Theodore (VGK – D)

The Knights are the second highest scoring team in the NHL and they are up against a Canucks team that is in the bottom three in goals allowed, not to mention a huge power play disparity as the Knights are seventh with the man advantage while Vancouver is 25th on the penalty kill. There really is no metric we can come up with that would tell you not to play Vegas other than the fact the Pittsburgh has an even better matchup. I’m going to take that last piece of information and turn it into a positive for Vegas as they’ll probably see a slightly depressed ownership with PIT being so heavily favored against the Islanders. When it comes to a matchup that’s this lopsided, I try not to get too cute with my lines. There’s really no reason not to fire away with Wild Bill Karlsson. He’s one of the most prolific scorers in the league and we are at a point now where we can stop calling it a fluke. I’ll try to make sure I stack him up with his line mates but if I can’t then I’m alright with a one off play on Karlsson, or even as a pair with the offensive-minded Colin Miller (4 points and 10 SOG over his last three games).

Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks

Focus: Nathan MacKinnon (COL – C), Mikko Rantanen (COL – W), Gabriel Landeskog (COL – W), Tyson Barrie (COL – D)

Value: Tyson Jost (COL – W)

Last week we were on Colorado on the road against the Blues and they paid off very well. I’m going to go back to that well once again today as they’ve given me no reason to jump ship. They’ve won four of their last five games and have scored 4+ goals in all four of those wins. Conversely, the Blackhawks have lost six of nine and have given up 3+ goals in nine of their ten games so far in March. Just as it was last week against the Blues, Colorado is shocking underdog in this game and I’m hoping that pulls some ownership away from them. Their top line of Nathan MacKinnon (20 points on 56 SOG over his last ten games; great googliy moogily!), Mikko Rantanen (19 points over his last ten games), and Gabriel Landeskog (13 points over his last ten games) has as much upside as any trio on the slate tonight so to get them at any discount, price or ownership, is a huge plus for me. To combine for 52 points over ten games is ridiculous and this is a matchup they can absolutely exploit. I may actually like Colorado more than I like Vegas and Pittsburgh tonight (for DFS purposes), and I really like VGK and PIT. Once again you should keep an eye on Tyson Jost for some spill off (that has yet to come) on the power play.

Ottawa Senators vs Florida Panthers

Focus: Matt Duchene (OTT – C), Mike Hoffman (OTT – W), Erik Karlsson (OTT – D)

Value: Cody Ceci (OTT – D), Alexandre Burrows (OTT – W), Magnus Paajarvi (OTT – W

You have to work with me a little bit here to see through what looks like a pretty crazy play. First of all, this is an eleven game slate with a lot of big name lines taking up ownership. That means a team like Ottawa could see ownership at 5% or less, so if they go off you profit. While we shouldn’t just stack a team for ownership only, the Senators are actually in a pretty good position coming into this game. They’ve won three of their last four while averaging 4 goals per game over that time period. For a team as bad as Ottawa, you have to ride these sample sizes while you can. The Panthers, meanwhile, are playing the second night of a back to back. They’ve done this four other times since January 1. They’ve surrendered 4+ goals in three of those four games. All it takes is one little statistical anomaly like that to give you the edge you need to get some exposure to a team like this. Would I feel comfortable using Ottawa in 100% of my lineups? Of course not, they’re a bad team. What I would feel comfortable doing is using them sporadically (maybe 25-30% exposure) to take advantage if the numbers work out and they hit for 4+ goals. The two best players to target are Matt Duchene and Mike Hoffman, a combined 4 points in each of Ottawa’s last three wins. Erik Karlsson is the obvious defensive play for the Senators but he’s got a bug and may not end up playing. If that’s the case, then there’s a chance for some value opening up with Cody Ceci or Thomas Chabot (I prefer Ceci’s 3.5 SABS per game average). Also keep an eye on Alexandre Burrows and Magnus Paajarvi as one of them may see some power play time if Ryan Dzingel can’t suit up.

Other Thoughts

New York Rangers
Since February 1 the Blue Jackets have played on back to back nights five times. They have allowed 4+ goals in three of those five games. I’m not a huge fan of the Rangers in general, but tonight they may be worth a look with CBJ having played on Monday night as well. The line of Jesper Fast (NYR – W), Chris Kreider (NYR – W), Mika Zibanejad (NYR – C) have combined for 28 points over their last ten games and are the guys I’d look to use tonight.

Pittsburgh Penguins
My only issue with the Penguins is that you never know where they production is going to come from. They’re like the Manchester City of hockey (shout out to my EPL Sharp Tongues article!). That said, they have the best power play unit in hockey while the Canadiens are one of the worst penalty killing teams. One other stat that favors Pittsburgh heavily is that Montreal is near the bottom of the league in faceoff winning percentage, meaning more opportunities on net in the offensive zone during power plays for Pittsburgh.

Winnipeg Jets
Since February 1 the Kings have played on back to back nights four times. They have allowed 3+ goals in three of those four games. You’re probably playing the Jets anyway but here is just one more reason to get excited about Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – W) and Patrik Laine (WPG – W) if you can afford them. Don’t sleep on Paul Stastny (WPG – C) either. He’s the third man on the Ehlers/Laine line and the 10 points he racked up over his last ten games are actually one more than what Ehlers has done.

Doug’s Goalies to Target

My philosophy on selecting a goalie has changed a lot over the last year or so. I used to try to find a total HuLo play and run with that. I found that all too often I’d get burned by that guy because he was just too risky. Sometimes it’s just a good idea to look at the Vegas lines, look at who is playing well, and just pay up for a favorite. The worst thing in DFS is when I hit on all my other picks but I got cute at goalie and didn’t maximize profit. I try not to do that anymore.

Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas Golden Knights) vs Vancouver Canucks

I can’t sleep on the Flower, he’s just too good. The guy is coming off a 42 save shutout of the Calgary Flames and has an even better matchup tonight against the Canucks. He’s faced 30+ shots in half of his last ten games and could very well be in line for another huge game tonight. The last time he faced Vancouver he gave up three goals, but they’re a different (read: worse) team now and playing at T-Mobile has been death for visitors all year. I don’t like to predict shutouts but there’s a very good chance that everyone who attends the game tonight is going home with a coupon for a free Krispy Kreme donut. I don’t see any goalie that looks safer on this slate than Fleury and if you’re playing for safe, then he’s your guy.

Semyon Varlamov (Colorado Avalanche) at Chicago Blackhawks

Over his last four starts, Varlamov is 3-1 with a 2.00 GAA, although that’s skewed by the three goals he save up in his lone loss. In the other three games he only gave up one goal in each game with an average of 34.5 saves per game. Average that all out and you’ve got a goalie that can pop you a GPP. Somehow the guy is once again an underdog, but that only makes me like him more. I don’t see Colorado losing this game and that win bonus alone is enough to make me want to use Varlamov tonight. If people buy into the Avs being an underdog then we may actually win the ownership game with Varlamov as well. Both he and Fleury are very expensive tonight; Fleury is your safer play, while Varlamov is the ownership play.

Braden Holtby (Washington Capitals) vs Dallas Stars

Over his last ten games, Braden Holtby has a 4.27 GAA. That’s awful. On the other hand, the Dallas Stars have lost five straight, are terrible on the road, and are a significant underdog in this game (that has a 5.5 over/under). If there ever was a spot for Holtby to turn it around it would be in this game. The other thing going in Holtby’s favor is that he’s been great at home all year with a 2.36 GAA (vs a 4.00 GAA on the road), so we can maybe take some solace in that. What I like best about Holtby is that his price is depressed a little bit, allowing you to spend an extra few hundred bucks on an upgraded player elsewhere. This is far from the safe play, but there’s a ton of HuLo potential in this matchup.

Other Thoughts

Martin Jones (SJS) and Cam Ward (CAR) are both in interesting spots at home tonight. Jones is a lot safer play against the Devils in what should be a low scoring game, while Ward is more of a HuLo type play with an Edmonton matchup that probably will scare a lot of people off of him. I’m not in love with either guy but both deserve to be considered if you’re making multiple lineups.

Sample Lineups

Analysis: As I stated above, I love the Avalanche tonight so I’m going to make sure to get them all in my lineup (save for Tyson Barrie, which upsets me). While I don’t love putting all my eggs in the Senators basket, their stack plays very nicely with a Colorado stack so that’s where I’m choosing to go. If Ottawa can get to at least 4 goals, I should be in great shape. I didn’t want to mess up what could be a very GPP-friendly lineup by screwing up at goalie so I’m going with the top guy on my board. Jesper Fast is playing too well to be as cheap as he is so he’s my cap saver of the day.

CENTRE
Nathan MacKinnon
(Colorado Avalanche)
$7900

CENTRE
Matt Duchene
(Ottawa Senators)
$5200

WING
Mikko Rantanen
(Colorado Avalanche)
$6600

WING
Gabriel Landeskog
(Colorado Avalanche)
$6000

WING
Matt Hoffman
(Ottawa Senators)
$6200

WING
Thomas Chabot
(Ottawa Senators)
$3000

DEFENCE
Jamie Oleksiak
(Pittsburgh Penguins)
$3200

GOALIE
Marc-Andre Fleury
(Vegas Golden Knights)
$8500

UTIL
Jesper Fast
(New York Rangers)
$3200

Analysis: As I did with my DK lineup, I started with Colorado and built from there. I wasn’t able to get Mikko Rantanen in with this team but giving him up for William Karlsson and Patrik Laine felt like a fair tradeoff. I had to make some concessions here and go with two value players from Vegas, but it’s Vegas so I’m ok with it. Semyon Varlomov continues to get no love from FD, so I figure I might as well take advantage of that to save some more money. This lineup has a higher ceiling than my DK lineup, but it also is going to be a lot chalkier so I have to hope my value plays and creative defensive pairing do something if I hope to rise to the top of my GPP.

CENTRE
William Karlsson
(Vegas Golden Knights)
$7700

CENTRE
Nathan MacKinnon
(Colorado Avalanche)
$9000

WING
Gabriel Landeskog
(Colorado Avalanche)
$6400

WING
Patrik Laine
(Winnipeg Jets)
$8400

WING
Jesper Fast
(New York Rangers)
$3700

WING
Alexandre Burrows
(Ottawa Senators)
$3100

DEFENCE
Colin Miller
(Vegas Golden Knights)
$4700

DEFENCE
Nate Schmidt
(Vegas Golden Knights)
$4100

GOALIE
Semyon Varlamov
(Colorado Avalanche)
$7900

Thank you for taking the time to stop by and check things out. Make sure to keep an eye here as I will be writing a few times a week for NHL. You can also check out my EPL article, Sharp Tongues, every Friday night with a look at that weekend’s EPL main slate. You can follow me on Twitter @bankster17; I answer everyone who sends along questions or comments.

Comments are closed.