NHL DFS GPP Takedown – March 1, 2018

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The One Time Shot (NHL HuLo GPP Plays) for March 1, 2018

After a self-imposed NHL DFS hiatus (NFL DFS consumed my life this fall), The One Time Shot is back at my new home, Beeline Sports. Longtime readers of mine will notice that I’ve streamlined the article a little bit, but outside of that very little has changed.

For those that are new to my article I’m Doug Shain, the 2017 FSWA NHL Fantasy Writer of the year. I’ve been writing for the last four seasons for a number of sites for NHL, MLB, and NFL DFS (and now EPL right here at Beeline Sports). Although I’ve been writing about DFS for four years, I’ve been a fantasy player for the last 27 years. I hosted what I have convinced myself is the first ever NFL Fantasy radio show way back in 1997. Fantasy sports is a huge part of my life. I love talking about it, writing about it, and playing it.

I approach DFS with a GPP mentality; I want to win big or go home. I’m a lot like you, a small buy in player looking to wind down a bit after work and maybe put some extra cash in my pocket for a nice dinner out or a vacation.

My goal for this article is to provide you with some perspective. I don’t do optimal lineups and I’m not a guy that dives deep into advanced statistics. I want you to look at my thought process and then make some decisions to help you build your GPP lineups. I always give you a sample lineup or two, but those are there merely as an example of how I build lineups from my thought process. They are definitely NOT templates or optimal lineups. We have great content here at Beeline that can give you all of that, and I strongly suggest you use that in conjunction with this article.

I live by the theory of HuLo (High upside, Low ownership). HuLo is my take on contrarianism and it guides a lot of my thinking. I always want to find those few HuLo plays that will give you an edge in your GPP contest. As we go through this journey (I egotistically view my articles as an episodic journey) I hope you’ll get to learn a lot more about how I play and how I think. When all is said and done, my biggest hope is that your gameplay benefits from taking a few minutes to see how I figure out my DFS lineups. With that, let’s get to the good stuff. Best of luck with your One Time Shot!

Doug’s GPP Stacks of the Slate

New Jersey Devils Power Play 1 at Florida Panthers

The most penalized team in the NHL is the Florida Panthers. New Jersey has a solid PP unit that should be able to take advantage of that extra ice time. Despite a modest winning streak, the Panthers are not a solid defensive team; giving up 35 SOG and 3.2 goals per game on the season. They also struggle to kill penalties as they give up a goal on 21% of the power plays they face. While that’s not the worst mark in the league, it is in the bottom third. Taylor Hall is an obvious play with a 4000 game point scoring streak (it’s “only” 22 games, but still), but I have no issue pairing him with less popular players like Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri, or even Sami Vatanen to try to maximize my point potential. The price on these guys is such that you really aren’t going to be hamstrung even if you do go all in on a Devils stack. I think that their ownership may not be too bad given that they are on the road and are an underdog. I’m much more interested in the total for this game being a solid 6.0 than I am who the favorite is. New Jersey shouldn’t really be sneaking up on anyone right now but I just don’t see a ton of people headed their way for this slate.

Dallas Stars Even Strength 1 vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay is on the second leg of a back to back (their third game in four days) and it looks like they are going to turn their net-minding duties over to Louis Domingue; one of the absolute worst goaltenders in the league. Since the calendar turned to 2018, Domingue has given up an average of 3.00 goals per game and faced over 34 SOG per game. As a matter of fact, Domingue has given up 3+ goals in eight of his last ten starts. There’s a school of thought that would tell you not to get cute and just ride Seguin, Benn, and Radulov but I’m going to go in another direction and make sure I have exposure to Remi Elie. The guy is crazy cheap and has found himself in a prime position next to Tyler Seguin. I absolutely love getting cheap spill off points from a cheap player playing next to a stud. Elie could be the guy getting all the Seguin spill off in this game. As you’ll see in the sample lineups, I’m all about getting massive exposure to Elie for both the potential spill off and the flexibility his salary gives your lineup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Power Play 2 at Boston Bruins

I’m a huge proponent of exploiting the power play. I love it when I can pull a stat that leads me to load up on a team’s power play line. There’s nothing so glaring in this matchup that I’m going to tell you to absolutely make sure you’re on PIT but there are a few interesting stat tidbits that make me want to look at their power play lines. Normally I would jump on the top PP line for the Penguins because they dominate ice time but Thursday’s matchup may dictate some extra time for the PP2 line. The Bruins are in the bottom third of the league in penalty minutes so it would stand to reason that the PIT PP2 is going to see some extended play. Add to that the fact that the Bruins give up the second most SOG in the league and it’s a likely scenario that the top power play team in all of hockey is going to get some opportunities with a man advantage. Even if Boston doesn’t get whistled as much as I’d like, it’s not like the Penguins second liners don’t get even strength time. I’m very excited to see how Phil Kessel, Colin Sheary, and Derrick Brassard gel now that they have a game together under their belts. I love the discount I get by using them over Crosby and Friends; allowing me a shot at a few other bigger names elsewhere in my lineup.

Other Thoughts

San Jose Sharks: I’m an Evander Kane fanboy and a 2 assist game in his debut for the Sharks has done nothing to move me off of the love I have for him. He’s very reasonably priced and his game fits in well with the Sharks offensive game plan. I’m sure he’ll find his way into my lineup if I’m not overdoing it at my other positions. At the very least, we know he’s going to shoot the puck a ton; those shots add up quickly. The other player that I’m looking strongly at is Justin Bruan. I don’t know what’s gotten into him, but he’s accumulated 7 points over his last seven games. That’s hard to pass up at his price point. His skill set works really well on FD, although I wouldn’t avoid him at only $3.5k on DK either.

Minnesota Wild: It wouldn’t be a One Time Shot if I didn’t let Zuckermania run a little wild, right? Over his last six games, Jason Zucker has racked up 11 total points with about 3 SOG per game. I don’t see him slowing down against the Coyotes.

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings are projected to be in a low scoring game, but there’s room for scoring even with a tiny 5.0 over/under. Jeff Carter has been firing away over his last three games with an average of 6 SOG per game and as I’ve stated, I’m a SOG junkie. The other player on LA that catches my eye is Dion Phaneuf. He’s been outstanding since his trade to the Kings. He’s had an assist in each of his last two games, but the number that really stands out to me is his 5.5 SABS (shots and blocked shots) per game average in those two games (9 of which are on SOG). If LA is going to let him fire away, then he should be able to give you a significant return on his price. SOG JUNKIE!

Doug’s Goalies to Target

My philosophy on selecting a goalie has changed a lot over the last year or so. I used to try to find a total HuLo play and run with that. I found that all too often I’d get burned by that guy because he was just too risky. Sometimes it’s just a good idea to look at the Vegas lines, look at who is playing well, and just pay up for a favorite. The worst thing in DFS is when I hit on all my other picks but I got cute at goalie and didn’t maximize profit. I try not to do that anymore.

Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles Kings) vs Columbus Blue Jackets

I wasn’t too keen on Quick when I first started prepping for this article but I just can’t get a few things out of my head. First of all, he’s a home favorite in the game with the lowest projected total. That’s pretty important. Second of all, he’s priced under $8k on DK which seems really low to me. He actually has a number of matchup-based statistics in his favor as well today. The Blue Jackets are near the top of the league in SOG per game with 34, but they only have scored 2.57 goals per game. That is a very inefficient offense. On top of that, Columbus is one of the three worst teams in the league in scoring on the power play, while LA is second in the league in penalty killing. This tells me that I should get a lot of shots for my goalie to stop, but he probably won’t give up a ton of goals. Quick hasn’t had a shutout in over a month, and that probably won’t change against Columbus, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been good either. Although his win/loss record has been suspect, he’s given up fewer than 3 goals in 70% of his starts this month. I’m more than happy to give him a shot, at this price, given all these factors.

Petr Mrazek (Philadelphia Flyers) vs Carolina Hurricanes

Mrazek is one of the bigger favorites on the board against an aggressive Hurricanes lineup that should get him a lot of fantasy points. Carolina is top 5 in the league in shots on goal, yet they are near the bottom in total goals scored. This offensive inefficiency is a massive plus for a guy like Mrazek who isn’t nearly as talented as someone like Pekka Rinne; it gives him a little bit of a cushion knowing he’s not facing a team of snipers. That’s not to say that Carolina doesn’t have its land mines. I don’t think Mrazek is a player you use in the hopes of getting a shutout. Instead, he’s a volume play that should get you a win. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him with 30+ saves and a win, even if it comes with 3 goals allowed. He’s not winning you a GPP on his own, but he’s also probably not going to lose one for you either. I much prefer Mrazek on Fanduel where his price is just too good to pass up.

Ben Bishop (Dallas Stars) vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Remember earlier when I mentioned that the Lightning are playing their third game in four nights? I think that’s an appropriate thing to remember when looking at goalies tonight. Bishop is far from the safest goalies, much more an old school Doug type of a play, but he’s far cheaper than the rest of our reasonable options tonight and should come with a much lower ownership. That’s one of the things you’ll learn about me; if I’m going to play a cheaper/more volatile play, it’s going to come with an advantage in the ownership game. Bishop has the potential to put up a very similar game to Mrazek for about 90% of the price (on DK). We can use those savings to upgrade at skill position and put ourselves in a spot to really hammer down a GPP.

Other Thoughts

Pekka Rinne and Devan Dubnyk are the safest, and probably most popular, goalies on this slate and I’m likely going to avoid them. While I want to be smart with my goalie picks, I think that Jonathan Quick is nearly as safe as Rinne and Dubs for much cheaper on DK (or go with a riskier and cheaper play in Bishop), and I’m using Mrazek on FD so that pretty much leaves Rinne and Dubnyk in the cold for me. If you have the money to move up to one of the two studs I’m all for it, but there’s no way I’m going to go out of my way to spend up for them if it means I have to downgrade elsewhere.

Sample Lineups

Analysis: Look at all this fire power! Using Elie really opened up my game to stack San Jose and still have room for Taylor Hall and a power defensive duo (a position I usually spend down on). Even if Elie gives you nothing, there’s still enough here to make it work.

CENTRE
Joe Pavelski
(San Jose Sharks)
$6700

CENTRE
Travis Zajac
(New Jersey Devils)
$3500

WING
Evander Kane
(San Jose Sharks)
$6600

WING
Taylor Hall
(New Jersey Devils)
$7700

WING
Kyle Palmieri
(New Jersey Devils)
$5700

DEFENCE
Sami Vatanen
(New Jersey Devils)
$4300

DEFENCE
Dion Phaneuf
(Los Angeles Kings)
$4200

GOALIE
Jonathan Quick
(Los Angeles Kings)
$7900

UTIL (WING)
Remi Elie
(Dallas Stars)
$3200

Analysis: Kane and Zucker on the same team…a fanboy’s dream team. McAvoy and Carter are a couple of extravagances that I was able to afford due to spending down a bit at goalie and, of course, Elie.

CENTRE
Tyler Seguin
(Dallas Stars)
$8100

CENTRE
Jeff Carter
(Los Angeles Kings)
$6300

WING
Jamie Benn
(Dallas Stars)
$7400

WING
Jason Zucker
(Minnesota Wild)
$6700

WING
Evander Kane
(San Jose Sharks)
$6600

WING
Remi Elie
(Dallas Stars)
$3500

DEFENCE
Charlie McAvoy
(Boston Bruins)
$4100

DEFENCE
Justin Braun
(San Jose Sharks)
$4200

GOALIE
Petr Mrazek
(Philadelphia Flyers)
$7900

Thank you for taking the time to stop by and check things out. Make sure to keep an eye here as I will be writing a few times a week for NHL. You can also check out my EPL article, Sharp Tongues, every Friday night with a look at that weekend’s EPL main slate. You can follow me on Twitter @bankster17; I answer everyone who sends along questions or comments.

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