Beeline Breakdown: NHL Hockey – October 4

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October 4, 2017
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October 4, 2017

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NHL DFS Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets

Wednesday, October 4th,  

O/U: 6.0 ML: -115 Jets

Our NHL DFS Breakdown starts with Toronto who seems like the favorite stack early for most of the quick research people, when in reality they are going to face a very tough match-up. Winnipeg is a very tough place to play and  the production of this team is tough to predict. However, Toronto does have line 1 and 2 in the best spot. Toronto’s first line with Matthews is probably going to be quite chalky as they produce time and time again in every match-up. Matthews is one of those centers that doesn’t just look to make the play, but he will shoot the puck if he has an opportunity. Matthews and Nylander both get time on the PP1 and they have great chemistry together, so if you want a cheap 2 man stack they are the way to go. If you add in Hyman, he is a great value to complete the line stack. The Bozak line is also worth a shot in gpp. The whole game-plan will probably be centered around slowing Matthews and his line down, so Bozak and his boys will cause match-up problems. Now they don’t have as good numbers on the road, but they all get power play time which is key. Further note, Winnipeg allowed an average of 3.12 goals per game last year, which was the 4th worst in the NHL. Winnipeg took a ton of penalties last year and had the 6th worst PK unit only killing 77.82% of their penalties. Considering these guys have PP time and they are in a high total game, they will set up well. However, Winnipeg has had some really good success against Toronto and this is a very difficult place to play as the road team so in GPP’s they are a great fade away from the chalk.

On the other side, we have Winnipeg and they are also in a very good spot. This is the only game that is above 5.5 at 6 and Winnipeg is currently the favorite sitting at -115. For Winnipeg we are going to look at their second line with Ehlers, Laine and Little. All three of these guys see plenty of ice time and as a group last year they scored 22 goals which was the 18th best. Toronto may end up winning a ton of games from scoring last year but they allowed the third most shots against last year with 32.75 per game and if Anderson isn’t locked in tomorrow this could really be a great game for the Jets. All three of these guys get PP time and they are a high paced offense that has a score first mentality. On defense both Trouba and Byfuglien are very viable options. Trouba is the massively underpriced on both FanDuel & Draft Kings for the amount of ice time and production he brings to the table. He’s going to be the QB on the PP2 and probably play a heavy amount of minutes slowing down Matthews and this fast pace Toronto offense. Trouba loves to shoot the puck and in a high total game he also sets up for a good chance at a point or two. Byfuglien is more expensive on DK and for that reason he looks like more of a FD play where he is easy to fit in. Trouba and Byfuglien are the best defensive options on this team so both are going to play heavy minutes rotating to stop this fast paced offensive attack. Byfuglien is the QB on the PP1 with Laine which sets him up for a great chance at getting an assist. Those guys will probably take more shots than him which takes his chances of a PP goal down but they are still there. Winnipeg should make this a good fight and at home against Toronto they also set up very well for a win in this one.

Maple Leafs:  Toronto line 1 and 2

Jets: Winnipeg Line 2, Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien (FD)

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Wednesday, October 4th,

O/U: 5.5 ML: -190 Penguins

NHL DFS Breakdown has the Pittsburgh Penguins home opener… starting a season that could lead to a third straight Stanley Cup Championship and placing them as the 1st team to do this since the New York Islanders in the 1980 to 1983 NHL season. Pittsburgh on any given night has the ability to put the puck in the net and produce points for our DFS selection. Sidney Crosby posted 8 multi-goal games last year and also 26 multi-point games. Jake Guentzel proved in the preseason that he can produce, posting 9 points and second in scoring to Connor McDavid. With a wide variety of offensive weapons, including Evgeni Malkin on second line, there are a variety of combinations that may produce. Malkin tallied 5 multi-goal games and 21 multi-point games last season. Great stats from the Penguins in our NHL DFS Breakdown for tonight.

The St.louis Blues have their work cut out for them playing in Pittsburgh on opening night where Sidney Crosby will be looking to silence the critics on whether Connor McDavid or himself is best in the NHL. St.Louis plays a gritty game play and can shut down offensive play on the road. Look for St. Louis to Keep it close playing on the road. Jake Allen will be facing a barrage of shots in this match-up and has proven before that he shut down the best teams in the NHL.

Overall, St. Louis will look to play there defensive game-play and shut down the high powered offense of the penguins. A possibility of this being a low scoring game.

NHL DFS Breakdown

Blues: Jake Allen (DK)

Penguins: Crosby, Sheary, Guentzel

Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers

Wednesday, October 4th,

O/U: 5.5 ML: -155 Oilers

Calgary is going to be in for a tough battle playing in a rival game against Edmonton.

Edmonton at their home opener is something to really look at. They are going to want to set a statement to start the season and against a rival they have an even better reason to come out flying. The total is sitting at 5.5 like all the other games with Toronto still on top but with all the ownership probably flying to Toronto we can probably get them at a reduced ownership on both sites. If we look at the last 4 times these teams have played we have Edmonton outscoring them 21-11. They have also gotten 7 goals in two of the games they played last year. At home it sets up to really favor the Oilers in this one. We can look at Edmonton’s first line centered by Connor McDavid for the main line in all formats. When targeting Edmonton this is the line you want to look at because they all play well together and 2 of them get PP1 time. They are also the main producers for this team and the team counts on them putting up points to win. The Flames also don’t really have the defense to stop McDavid let alone slow him down and at a home opener with how bad the Flames have recently done in this match-up they are a prime play. Kris Russell is also a guy for value on both sites here. As a defense-man 2, he will provide you a very safe floor as he does it all. He blocks 3-4 shots a game and he will probably get you 2-3 shots on goal too. If you add an assist on top of that you are looking at a guy that just crushed value. He may not see power play time but he is certainly worth a look if you need value which you will probably need paying up for one of the studs like McDavid. Cam Talbot seems like the favorite goaltender in all formats so far. He’s going to face a Calgary offense that has lost all 4 of their previous match-ups and that sets him up very well for the win. He’s also the 2nd largest favorite on the slate sitting at -155 behind Matt Murray in Pittsburgh. Edmonton is certainly a team you will want to look at in all formats. Our NHL DFS Breakdown points strengths to the Edmonton Oilers opening night.

 NHL DFS Breakdown

Flames: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau

Oilers:  Kris Russell, Cam Talbot

Philadelphia Flyers @ San Jose Sharks

Wednesday, October 4th,

O/U: 5.5 ML: -150 Sharks

The flyers are in a tough spot going into San Jose for the home opener but these prices on both sites are really intriguing for some value as a one off type play. Nolan Patrick just seems way too cheap. We are talking about the 2nd overall pick and he’s going to see ample ice time. He’s currently centering the 2nd line with Weal and Simmonds both guys that should really help him jump start his NHL career. He’s also getting time on the PP2 as the center-man. Now the Sharks don’t take many penalties so we don’t really need to take a huge look at the power-play stuff but it is there in case the situation occurs. The Sharks play a very tough defensive system and they only allowed an average of 2.42 goals per game last year which was the second best but for 4k on DK and 4.6k on FD he’s a risk that might be worth taking. Jordan Weal is also a guy that could be worth taking a risk on. He’s going to be in a top 6 role with Simmonds /Patrick and also get some time at the point on the PP2 which will probably get him a good chance at a few extra shots. He’s only 3.1k on dk so a great C2 play and as a W4 type play on FD if you need value. Now these guys are in very tough match-ups as we have said but they may be worth a look as a one off because the value is there even if the matchup isn’t.

The Sharks will defend home ice on most nights and always make it very tough for any team on the road. As we talked about earlier they play a slower pace system that doesn’t allow a ton of shots and also doesn’t allow a ton of goals. The possession type system really paid off though as they only allowed 2.42 goals per game last year which was the 2nd best and they also only allowed 27.70 shots per game which was the 3rd best. They are a very tough team to play against and this shouldn’t be a high scoring game but they should really win this game. For this game you can always look to stack the Couture line but again there are some high pace games going on before this one and we will probably look to stack those games and just take a one off from this game. Brent Burns is always in play because he shoots the pucks so much. More than any other defense-man in the league and more than most forwards. He did slow down near the end of last year but this guy does it all. However it’s going to pretty much be a decision between McDavid/Matthews/Burns/Crosby for the stud in your lineup and it’s very tough to get two of those guys in while keeping a balanced enough lineup. Martin Jones is also going to be in consideration if you choose to fade the cheap Philly guys. The Flyers only scored 2.67 goals per game last year and that ranked bottom half in the league as a below average number. They may change that with Patrick joining the team but for now we can still think of them as a weaker offense. The Sharks are also sitting as -150 favorites which is a nice number. However, Jones is a tough play because he doesn’t see a ton of shots with the possession numbers being so good for the sharks that if he lets a goal in he probably won’t see enough shots to make it back. The win is most likely going to be there for him though so he is cash viable. NHL DFS Breakdown saddles up San Jose for a Defensive match-up tonight.

NHL DFS BreakdownNHL DFS Breakdown

Flyer: Nolan Patrick, Jordan Weal.

Sharks: Brent Burns, Martin Jones.

NHL DFS Breakdown Lines Combos

Edmonton Line 1: Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl – Patrick Maroon.

Toronto Line 1: Auston Matthews – William Nylander – Zach Hyman.

Toronto Line 3: Tyler Bozak – James Van Riemsdyk – Mitch Marner.

Winnipeg Line 2: Bryan Little – Nikolaj Ehlers – Patrick Laine.

Pittsburg Line 1: Sidney Crosby-Jake Guentzel – Conor Sheary.

NHL DFS Breakdown – Hive Army Recap

Top Goalie: Cam Talbot

Top Stud: Connor McDavid

Top Value: Kris Russell/Jordan Weal

Top Stack: Edmonton Line 1


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NHL DFS Breakdown


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