Beeline Breakdown: NFL Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Thursday, September 7th, 8:30 EDT, Gillette Stadium
O/U: 48.5 ML: -450 Patriots
Kansas City couldn’t start the season better, on the road against the greatest QB of all time(everyone can have their own opinion). The Chiefs don’t seem that interesting this week because Bill will always find a way to shut down the main part of the offense and he consistently does it. That will most likely be the main target Kelce from the TE position as he is the main part of this offense along with their running game. Also without Maclin this team is going to have trouble airing the ball out. Hill is still a scary player running the ball on sweeps and such but they don’t have a legit receiver you have to gameplan all week on outside of Kelce in the passing game. Kareem Hunt will be in for a tough day but he is the best option for the Chiefs in this one. We have Ware out for the season and regardless of what the media says about 3 backs, Hunt should have this job secured because he’s the best they have. He went early in season long for a reason because he’s going to have a very good fantasy year. If they stand any chance at taking down the SB champs they are going to have to establish the run and do it with authority.
Even without Edelman this team is still a Super Bowl favorite and someone everyone would pick if they had to pick someone right now. Brady is easily a top 3 QB every single week and usually the top QB in cash regardless of the matchup. This guy can be against Denver and he’s still the best QB. His efficiency stats are off the charts and coming off that win in the Super Bowl this team will look to add on to that fire. Without Edelman we should see more Amendola but still he won’t be on the field enough to be worth it in dfs. He’s going to have his snap count monitored so we won’t have him running all the underneath Edelman routes getting 8-10 balls a game. Hogan looks like the guy that is the candidate for a big year. He started lining up in the slot more and more last season but they should use him on the outside more this year running shallow/medium routes mixing in the deep go occasionally. Now let’s talk about why Cooks is an absolutely ELITE play on the thursday slate. The last time Brady had a true deep threat he went crazy with Moss. While Cook may not be Moss caliber he still has got more speed than anyone on the field most weeks. Add the speed to the fact that Brady throws the best go route in all of football and you have a deadly combo. We could see Cook’s hit GPP value on 2 passes for all we know. This is going to be something to watch this season. Yes, Gronk is in play. Gronk can be left in to block from time to time with the blocking scheme that the Pats use but when this man gets the ball it literally looks like your older brother coming into the backyard to play football with your friends. The man can’t be brought down. Gronk is finally healthy and we should expect to see a monster year from the man himself this year.
Chiefs: Kareem Hunt.
Patriots: Tom Brady, Brandon Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 10th, 1:00 EDT, New Era Field
O/U: 40.0 ML: -450 Bills
The Jets have just lost everyone on their team and we can get some value from a DFS perspective but it’s still going to be a tough year. Balai Powell is someone that is really interesting but it’s tough to see how much he will get used in this offense. You would think the Jets go down big early and they just move Forte to the bench which would give Powell all the work in the backfield but who really knows with this trash team. When Powell gets his opportunity running routes out of the backfield he is a top PPR back. Someone that will probably catch 75-80 balls if he’s healthy for 17 weeks. Monitor the Forte situation before you pull the trigger in all formats but he, regardless of splitting snaps is in play. Another guy we can look at as a punt is Robby Anderson. He is somehow the number 1 receiver in this offense because of the Jets cutting everyone. He makes a fine punt play because he’s going to get his volume and the Bills are a weaker defense against the pass which just adds to this guy’s safety. Even if he ends up with 10-12 points that’s perfect for his price point.
The Bills basically said we are going to focus on running the ball by trading away Sammy Watkins and that’s a stupid move because they are going to put 7-8 guys in the box all game against McCoy. Regardless of his skill it’s very tough to beat a team by running the ball against a stacked box all game. McCoy is still viable if you really want to use him but this is a tough Jets run defense and they will be focusing on stopping the run. Someone that makes an interesting play as a punt in all formats is Zay Jones. The Bills may be a run first offense but they can’t run the ball 100% of the time. Zay Jones will be playing on the outside for most of the game as the Bills don’t have much speed and Tyrod loves to air it out when he can. Without Sammy he is going to have to use Zay. He does carry some risk but considering he will be out on the field for most of the game and playing in 2 WR sets he makes a very viable option at a lower price tag.
Jets: Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson.
Bills: Zay Jones.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Sunday, September 10th, 1:00 EDT, NRG Stadium
O/U: 39.5 ML: -240 Texans
Jacksonville is going to be a questionable team this season with the QB situation and all. If they ever manage to figure it out they will be a deadly team. Firstly for anyone that is even thinking about taking Leonard Fournette just don’t. He’s so injury prone and even at the college level he was getting injured every game. Even at a slower pace in the preseason he managed to find a way to get hurt so at a full speed NFL game against a scary defense run by JJ Watt it’s tough to see him having a good day. Two other things NFL rookies don’t generally have a huge start on their first game and even if he wasn’t injury prone this is still a very tough run defense that is finally healthy again. One guy you can take a look at is Allen Robinson in GPPs. Houston is going to take a hit this year in terms of their secondary after losing the 2nd best coverage corner in AJ Bouye. That means that we don’t have to worry about a lockdown guy taking away the WR1 on the other team. However, even without Bouye this is still a very tough matchup facing Kevin Johnson who is still a fairly solid corner. Robinson is an elite receiver and someone that you will get low ownership on and massive upside if Bortles starts force feeding him the rock like usually does.
Houston looks like they will be a better offense this year without Osweiler under center. Hopkins will finally be targeted again and he can make do with anyone who is half decent at QB. This is not going to be an easy matchup for Hopkins going against AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey but Hopkins is as elite as they come so he could really make something happen. There are certainly going to be weeks where he is a lock but this doesn’t seem like a must play at all this week. Hopkins has got multi TD upside weekly regardless of the matchup and he can beat any coverage so in GPP’s he is certainly viable. Houston will also have their defense in play facing Blake Bortles and a questionable offensive line.
Jaguars: Allen Robinson.
Houston: Deandre Hopkins, Houston D/St.
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